Safe-Haven Demand
Gold prices are seeing better demand today with the futures market in the green as we move through the European morning session. Civil unrest in the US, escalating violence between Russia and Ukraine and ongoing violence from Israel in Gaza means there is plenty of residual safe-haven demand in the market. These continued geopolitical threats look to be offsetting rising optimism around revived US/China trade talks for now. Following two days of negotiations this week, the US and China have reportedly agreed a framework to allow for the bilateral flow of sensitive goods to resume.
US Inflation Next
Looking ahead today, traders will be watching the latest set of US inflation readings. If a fresh uptick is confirmed, in line with forecasts, this should keep USD on a firmer footing, likely capping the rally in gold prices for now. However, if we see any undershooting of forecasts today this should be firmly bullish for gold, leading USD lower as near-term Fed easing expectations creep higher.
US ICE Protest Updates
Alongside the data, traders will be monitoring incoming news around the situation in LA. If conflict between protestors and the authorities escalates, this could start to feed into stronger safe-haven demand for gold. However, if the situation is brought under control without any further scalation, gold prices are likely to see soften as safe-haven demand dissipates.
Technical Views
Gold
The rally in gold has stalled for now into the bear trend line from YTD highs. However, with price still in a bullish channel and holding above the 3,254.65 level, focus is on a continuation higher and a fresh test of the 3,493.81 level highs.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.