US/China
Copper prices remain well supported this week with the futures market testing last week’s over early European trading on Tuesday. US/China trade tariffs remain the key market focus for now. Following some encouraging signals last week, China has this week confirmed (and reiterated) that it is not engaged in any trade discussions with the US presently. This comes in response to Trump claiming that he recently spoke with Xi JinPing on the phone regarding trade. Despite the uncertainty, there is a residual layer of optimism underpinning the market here with copper prices continuing to look poised for a fresh breakout near-term.
Trade Landscape
Away from the US and China, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week that several US trading partners have made “very good” tariff proposals and signalled that a deal with India might soon be announced. With the broader trade landscape looking more favourable over the last fortnight, risk assets are enjoying better upside here with copper prices set to advance further on any incoming positive headlines.
US Data on Watch
Looking ahead, the latest US jobs data will be in focus on Friday. Any fresh downside should feed into near-term Fed easing expectations creating further support for risk assets near-term, helping lift copper prices. However, any such rally might be capped if data weakness fuels a shift back towards recession fears, leading capital back into safe-haven assets.
Technical Views
Copper
With copper prices back above the 4.8010 level and underpinned by the bull channel lows, the focus is on a continuation higher and a return to YTD highs around 5.1985, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. 4.5785 remains the key support to watch below market.
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With 10 years of experience as a private trader and professional market analyst under his belt, James has carved out an impressive industry reputation. Able to both dissect and explain the key fundamental developments in the market, he communicates their importance and relevance in a succinct and straight forward manner.